Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the Premier League season so far concerns the reduction of goals scored in open play and how teams are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
When we compare goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.
Considering overall statistics, the number of shots sides are producing reveal a remarkable drop of 370 in open-play than this time previously.
And despite the notable jump in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen a mere two extra shots created from them excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective sides are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball chances.
Goal Statistics Tell a Story
The 301 goals recorded in 110 games so far works out at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for all 38 games would be the smallest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69).
However, only under 200 goals coming in open play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
2009-10 is also the unique EPL campaign to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolves have experienced by far the biggest decline, netting a mere four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolves, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring a minimum of five goals fewer from open-play than last season.
Honestly, this is mainly because them scoring lots of scores at the beginning of last season as opposed to them having difficulty to score in open-play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners the Black Cats have scored three extra scores in open-play than Southampton did in their first 11 games on their way to demotion last season.
In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with the two clubs making up for the five less goals that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
Man United have netted double the number goals from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches last season ahead of their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats once more are better at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about scoring more from set-plays, because they've recorded a reduction of three than last season, like Nottingham Forest, although this may result from the tactical shift they're working to install.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by recording fewer goals from open play and additional from set-plays, while Man City represent the sole team to go against the grain so far by achieving the contrary.
It will be fascinating to observe if teams persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as matches continue or if they regain their general attacking flair and start converting increased totals in open-play also.
