Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The mean figure of per-day homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that homicide figures might not indicate better countrywide safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President said, noting that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

But, security experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it might mask days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.