From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”