Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.